In this article:
- Why Pembina Institute believes the Meta data centre could increase household electricity bills
- How Meta’s Sturgeon County data centre could affect Alberta electricity costs
- What Alberta’s “Bring Your Own Generation” framework means for large data centres
- EPCOR and Direct Energy Marketing’s concerns about the BYOG framework
- What the AESO says about large-load connections, electricity prices and grid reliability
- How the Alberta government has responded to concerns about electricity affordability
Until recently, many Albertans may have viewed the new Meta data centre and associated Greenlight Electricity Centre in Sturgeon County as a potential way to reduce electricity transmission costs. However, a new analysis from the Pembina Institute has challenged that perspective, arguing that the project could ultimately increase electricity costs for Alberta households.
According to the analysis, the Meta data centre could add between $267 and $462 per year to the electricity bill of an average Alberta household between 2027 and 2031. While the provincial government has said that Meta’s connection could reduce the transmission portion of household electricity bills by up to six per cent, Pembina argues that “the market impacts of the new Meta data centre will far outweigh the transmission savings.”
According to Pembina’s analysis, the projected increase is largely linked to the period between the data centre connecting to the grid and additional generation coming online. Under Alberta’s “Bring Your Own Generation” rules, large data centres can connect to the grid before their on-site generation is operational. Pembina argues that when a large new load enters the electricity market before additional supply is available, it can place upward pressure on wholesale electricity prices.
By comparison, the Pembina Institute estimates that the average Alberta household spent approximately $1,700 on electricity in 2025. (Of that amount, energy costs accounted for 40%, distribution charges for 23%, transmission charges for 18%, rate riders and administration fees for 14%, and taxes for 5%.) Pembina estimates that Albertans could pay 15% to 25% more for electricity over the next five years as a result of the Meta data centre. However, the exact impact would vary according to each household’s provider and rate plan.
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David Pickup, Director of Electricity at the Pembina Institute, said the potential increase comes at a time when Alberta households are already facing relatively high and volatile electricity prices.
While these projected effects are expected in the 2027–2031 period, it has raised questions about how Alberta’s “Bring Your Own Generation” policy will operate while large data centres are connected to the grid but their dedicated generation is still being developed. The AESO’s current large-load framework allows qualifying projects to connect before all associated generations are online, creating what is known as a bridging arrangement.
As we discussed large facilities (requesting 75 MW or more of transmission service) in Alberta Data Centre Regulation Explained, “when Alberta filed the Data Centre Regulation at the beginning of June 2026, it introduced an entirely new structure for data centres connecting to and operating within the electricity system. The Regulation focuses on two things: supporting data centre investment and the new electricity demand it creates, while protecting transmission planning cycles by requiring large electricity users to take greater responsibility for supplying their own power.”
Pembina also argues that the planned policy framework could limit the generation options available to data centres. The institute says the framework would require new generation to come from natural gas, rather than allowing operators to pursue alternatives such as renewable generation and energy storage. Pembina continues that these alternatives could provide additional flexibility and potentially help limit electricity costs.
The provincial government has taken a different view of the role of BYOG. Premier Danielle Smith has described the “bring your own generation” approach as a way to protect Alberta’s electricity system and consumers from the impact of rapidly growing data-centre demand. In discussing the policy, Smith said the government wanted to ensure that data-centre development would not negatively affect consumers, and that companies coming to Alberta should have a plan to build their own power.
“The first thing is we want to make sure it doesn’t impact your electricity bills,” Smith said. “What we said is, if you want to come to Alberta, you’ve got to have a plan to build your own power.”
In the case of Meta, the concerns are centred around the timing of that additional generation. The objection raised by Pembina focuses primarily on the policy structure that allows large data centres to begin drawing electricity from the provincial grid before their dedicated generation is online. Meta’s Alberta facility is expected to have approximately 1.8 gigawatts of power demand at full build-out, while the associated Greenlight Electricity Centre is a 932-megawatt natural gas-fired generation project.
Meta is not, however, the only potential source of new electricity demand in Alberta. The AESO has reported an unprecedented volume of large-load connection requests, with 29 proposed projects representing more than 16 gigawatts of demand seeking connections as of June 2025. The AESO subsequently established a 1,200-MW interim connection limit and is now developing a longer-term framework for large loads, including data centres.
“It didn’t have to be this way. Tech companies have been leaders in renewable deployment in Alberta, but have been held back from further investment by hostile government policy interventions. Removing red tape for renewables can help to stabilize energy costs, enable local economic development, and reduce the emissions impact of this emerging industry,” says David Pickup.
What does the AESO say?
The Alberta Electric System Operator has also faced questions about the potential effect of the BYOG framework on existing electricity customers. According to EPCOR’s stakeholder submission, the utility argued that the bridging arrangement could shift some of the costs of accommodating large new loads onto other electricity customers through higher wholesale prices.
“The AESO is essentially putting all other customers in the position of paying for the bridging option for large loads that take advantage of it through the BYOG process, through higher electricity prices,” EPCOR wrote. It also described the approach as “contrary to Government of Alberta messaging” that data centres would bring their own power without increasing electricity costs for Albertans.
EPCOR is not the only stakeholder to have raised concerns about affordability. Direct Energy Marketing Limited raised a similar concern about whether affordability had been adequately considered in establishing the framework. The company argued that the stated purpose of Alberta’s large-load framework was to protect existing customers while enabling new investment, but questioned whether the proposed bridging limit had been estimated from an affordability perspective.
The AESO, however, has a more limited role than approving or regulating data centres themselves. The system operator ensures that large loads can connect to the electricity system safely and reliably, while its developing large-load framework addresses issues including connections, planning, operations, markets, tariffs and reliability.
However, as we mentioned in Comparing Canadian Provinces’ Approaches to Building Data Centers AESO has introduced “a process that would limit the volume of large-load connections in the near future. Data center projects that require grid connection would have to wait for AESO development of a long-term integration framework.”
Supporting this position is a recent statement from AESO to CTV News Edmonton in which they continue to develop the BYOG process with industry input and would provide stakeholders with additional information as the framework develops.
At the same time, the system operator has also acknowledged that increased demand can affect wholesale electricity prices, while arguing that those higher prices can encourage additional generation to enter the market. “Alberta’s electricity market naturally creates an ebb and flow of prices through the fundamental principle of supply and demand,” the AESO said, arguing that higher demand can attract new supply and that large new electricity loads can also contribute additional transmission revenues that help offset transmission costs for existing customers.
The government’s response
The provincial government has also rejected the Pembina Institute’s conclusions. The Ministry of Affordability and Utilities has stated that the Pembina Institute’s analysis does not adequately account for consumer protections and the structure of Alberta’s electricity market. The ministry said Pembina’s analysis “deliberately ignores” government measures designed to protect consumers from wholesale market volatility, including the default electricity rate.
Pembina, however, maintains that fixed-rate contracts do not eliminate longer-term changes in electricity prices. As per David Pickup, “Even those fixed prices over time are going to shift as well.”
The debate over Alberta’s growing data-center sector comes down to how the province manages the relationship between new electricity demand, generation and affordable power for residents. While Pembina Institute’s analysis warns that the Meta project could put pressure on electricity prices until Greenlight Electricity Centre starts operating in the second half of 2030, the provincial government and AESO argue that data centers will contribute to the costs of the infrastructure they require. As Alberta develops its long-term framework for large electricity loads, the extent to which data-center growth affects household bills will depend on how effectively the province balances investment, grid reliability and price stability.
How large electricity consumers can reduce and predict their costs in the long term
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Key takeaways:
- Pembina Institute study estimates the Meta data centre could add between $267 and $462 per year to the average Alberta household’s electricity bill between 2027 and 2031.
- The potential increase is tied to the transition period when the data centre is connected to the grid before its dedicated generation (Greenlight Electricity Centre) is fully operational.
- EPCOR and Direct Energy Marketing have raised affordability concerns about the bridging arrangement and its potential effects on other electricity customers.
- The AESO argues that increased demand can attract new generation and create additional transmission revenues for the system.
- The Alberta government disputes Pembina’s conclusions, referring to consumer protections and fixed-rate options.
- How large electricity consumers can reduce and predict their costs in the long term in Alberta
