Alberta’s 2035 Clean Electricity Deadline: Still realistic?

In this article:

The reason Alberta is seeking a long-term suspension of the federal Clean Electricity Regulations (CER)  

• What the CER require and why the 2035 deadline matters
• Why Alberta and Ottawa disagree over the regulations’ impact on electricity costs and emissions
• Alberta’s steps to attract clean-energy investment and strengthen its electricity grid
• Whether Alberta can realistically meet the CER’s 2035 emissions goals under an alternative framework

Alberta’s government appears to be under growing pressure to finally release a complete plan for reducing electricity-sector emissions while keeping the province’s power grid affordable. One key element of that plan is Alberta’s ongoing negotiations with Ottawa to suspend the federal Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) indefinitely, which were finalized on January 1, 2025, though their compliance obligations won’t take effect until 2035. Under a memorandum of understanding (MOU) reached with the federal government, the regulations were suspended in Alberta in November 2025 while the two governments negotiate an alternative approach. Alberta has proposed strengthening its industrial carbon-pricing system while “factoring all other measures” to reduce emissions from electricity generation. 

With less than a decade remaining, Alberta will need to demonstrate that its alternative approach can deliver meaningful emissions reductions without compromising the affordability and reliability of the electricity system.

As we wrote in An Overview of the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) in Canada: “New exemptions to the CER include:

• Emissions from natural gas power plans operating in emergency conditions due to extreme weather will be exempt.
• Plants that exceed their emissions limits will be allowed to use carbon offset credits.
• Power plants can be collectively grouped for emissions, rather than on an individual basis.”

What that alternative looks like matters beyond emissions targets: Alberta has made significant changes to its electricity market in recent years, some of which have weakened the business case for new low-cost renewable generation. At the same time, the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) has warned that the federal regulations could pose risks to the reliability and affordability of the province’s electricity system. The question is whether Alberta can realistically replace the CER with a framework that maintains reliability and affordability while delivering comparable emissions reductions. 

Why the CER Debate Remains

Alberta’s opposition to the Clean Electricity Regulations concerns cost and reliability. The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) says they could create significant reliability risks and increase electricity costs in the province in the years ahead. However, AESO also adds that the regulations may not deliver meaningful reductions in Alberta’s carbon emissions despite those added costs and risks.

The federal government has a different view. The CER are intended to establish a long-term strategy for reducing emissions from fossil-fueled electricity generation. The regulations’ compliance requirements are also designed to put Canada’s electricity sector on a path toward net-zero emissions by 2050.

From Ottawa’s perspective, the CER are about more than setting emissions limits. They are also meant to provide a stable policy signal for investment in clean electricity. Canada would need to plan for substantial new generation, transmission and storage capacity to meet growing electricity demand. The Canadian Climate Institute has estimated that Canada may need to double or even triple the size of its electricity grids to meet those goals, particularly as transportation, heating and other parts of the economy become increasingly electricity powered.

That makes the disagreement between Alberta and Ottawa particularly important because the federal government has already agreed to suspend the CER in Alberta while it negotiates an agreement on industrial carbon pricing. A permanent suspension requires an agreement showing that Alberta’s rules can achieve similar results to the federal regulations.

Whether Alberta succeeds in securing a long-term suspension will depend on its ability to prove that its own policies can reduce electricity-sector emissions, while also supporting the investment needed to expand the grid and keep electricity reliable and affordable for the residents.

When critics argue that the CER are too rigorous, they say that if natural gas generation is reduced too quickly, it could increase the risk of blackouts. But the regulations allow utilities to meet their emissions limits and plan ahead. While emissions can also be reduced through technologies such as carbon capture, natural gas plants can still operate to support grid reliability within certain limits.

The bigger concern is what is already happening with clean electricity development in Alberta. When Alberta was leading Canada in renewable energy development, new wind, solar and storage capacity fell by 93 percent last year compared with three years earlier. Since 2023, the province has introduced a series of new restrictions on renewable energy projects. Some of those restrictions limit how much revenue projects can earn, make it harder for them to connect to the grid, and restrict where wind and solar projects can be built. As a result, renewable projects are struggling to get their electricity to customers, particularly when transmission lines are overloaded.

The Way Forward

If Ottawa agrees to suspend the CER in Alberta for the long term, the province will need to show it has a credible alternative and is prepared to make the policy and infrastructure changes needed to attract investment in wind, solar, and battery storage again.

Although Alberta is free to develop its own approach to meeting the goals of the CER, if the province wants a long-term exemption from federal regulations, it will need to show that its policies can deliver similar results while also attracting investment.

• The first step Alberta could take as part of its agreement with Ottawa is to expand interprovincial electricity connections and energy storage and give wind and solar projects better access to markets, reducing the need to curtail generation when the grid is congested.
• The second step would be to build the transmission infrastructure needed in southern Alberta, where much of the province’s wind and solar generation is concentrated. More transmission capacity would make it easier to move low-cost electricity to customers and reduce pressure on the grid. These investments would not only support renewable energy but could also improve the overall affordability and reliability of Alberta’s electricity system.

Alberta also has potential demand for renewable electricity from businesses with their own emission reduction targets. A recent Business Renewables Centre-Canada report found that Canada’s 100 largest companies will need about 7.7 gigawatts (GW) of renewable electricity by 2040, with more than half of that demand expected by 2030. In Alberta alone, companies could need 1.4 GW of renewable energy to meet their climate targets.

That demand could create a major opportunity for Alberta’s renewable energy sector. But industrial carbon pricing alone is unlikely to be enough to bring investment back to the province.

Is 2035 Still Realistic?

Although it has limited time, the province can make those changes in the foreseeable future. Decisions about electricity generation and infrastructure are made years before projects come online, meaning the policies Alberta adopts today could shape what its electricity system looks like in 2035.

For Alberta, the 2035 Clean Electricity Regulations deadline is not unachievable. But if Alberta wants a long-term suspension of the CER, it will need to show that its approach can deliver emissions reductions while keeping electricity reliable and affordable for the residents. That means creating conditions that would expand transmission and storage, encourage new generation, and make it easier for renewable projects to bring their power to market.

Key takeaways:

• Alberta is negotiating with Ottawa to suspend the CER while developing an alternative approach to reducing electricity-sector emissions.
• Decisions about generation and grid infrastructure take years, making action now important.
• AESO has raised concerns that the CER could increase costs and create reliability risks. Meanwhile, Ottawa sees the regulations as an important long-term signal for clean energy investment.
• The supporters of CER state that expanding transmission, storage and interprovincial connections could help Alberta attract renewable investment and improve grid reliability and affordability.
• By 2035, Alberta will need a credible alternative to the CER and policies that support meeting the province’s emissions goals.

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