As Canada moves towards its 2035 ZEV sales target, there is growing concern about how this will impact Canada’s electrical grid. Many observers have questioned whether the country’s power system is capable of supporting the growing number of electric vehicles. Will EV adoption push our grids to the breaking point? This article will take a closer look at these concerns as well as some of the solutions that are being developed or are currently used.
What is Power Grid Reliability, and How Does it Impact Canadians?
Challenges to the grid
Most experts agree that electric vehicles will increase demand electrical demand and put pressure on the grid. Toronto Hydro states that charging an EV draws as much electricity as two average households combined. In a 2020 study commissioned by Natural Resources Canada, EVs are estimated to consume 156.5 TWh of electricity per year by 2050.
The Canadian Climate Institute believes the use of clean energy, which includes EVs, will strain Canada’s electrical grid, especially during peak hours from 5-9 p.m. The group found that Canada’s electricity generation capacity will need to be 2.2 to 3.4 times bigger than it is currently. A study from the University of Concordia found that EVs could strain the grid and potentially cause blackouts if too many are charged simultaneously.
Research by the Fraser Institute indicates EVs could pose a significant burden on provincial electricity grids. Total demand could increase by 7.5% to 15.3%. The Fraser Institute acknowledges that the burden varies by province. For example, Québec could see only a 4.6% increase in demand, while Ontario could see as much as a 26.2% increase. Overall, electric vehicles could increase annual demand in Canada from 46.8 TWh to 95.1 TWh.
EV charging has already caused issues for some residents. Certain neighbourhoods cannot support the power load that comes with EV charging. Therefore, EV drivers living in those neighbourhoods are stuck with Level 1 charging or are unable to install a home charging unit at all.
Toronto Hydro believes neighbourhoods served by low voltage lines will face longer times for connecting an EV charger to the grid along with higher installation costs. According to researchers from Concordia University, Canada currently has an uncoordinated charging strategy. This involves EV drivers charging their vehicles without scheduling, optimization techniques, or regard to overall strain on the grid. The researchers argue that continuing with this strategy will cause grid issues and potentially result in blackouts. A coordinated strategy considers potential grid issues and uses data to determine the best way to charge a large number of EVs simultaneously without burdening the grid.
Current and potential solutions
Several utilities have started preparing for the potential load increase from EV adoption. B.C. Hydro’s Site C dam is currently under construction. Once up and running, the dam could power approximately 1.7 million EVs.
Toronto Hydro is experimenting with devices that track additional loads experienced by transformers as more drivers recharge their EVs. The utility is also developing a system that would use machine-learning algorithms to analyze smart meter data to identify consumption patterns that could be caused by EV charging. According to Toronto Hydro, these measures will help the utility understand charging patterns and invest efficiently in grid capacity and flexibility. Ontario’s ultra-low overnight rate plan was designed with EV drivers in mind. The plan charges 2.4¢/kWh for electricity use between 11 p.m. and 7 a.m. Ontario’s time-of-use rate also incentivizes electricity consumption during off-peak times. BC Hydro is planning to offer its customers a time-of-use rate plan
Automakers and charging manufacturers have developed measures to improve grid reliability. Some electric vehicles come with bidirectional charging, which adds electricity back to the grid. In some jurisdictions, drivers are paid to feed electricity back to the grid. Offering these payments would be an effective strategy for the federal government to increase bidirectional charging. Smart charging is another way to ease pressure on the grid. Smart chargers know how much load the grid can handle and the amount of energy an EV needs. They are also capable of communicating with other smart chargers and the grid, which helps them adjust the rate of charge, optimize energy distribution, and report on energy consumption and performance. Home chargers like the FLO Home X5 let EV drivers limit the electricity sent to their vehicles, especially during peak consumption times (e.g. 4:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m.).
In April 2024, a smart charging pilot program was launched in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. The program monitors the charging habits of up to 2,000 participants to understand how to manage the impact of electric vehicle charging on power grids. Two hypotheses of the program are:
- Shifting load effectively results in peak reduction from EV charging
- Load shifting has little to no impact on EV drivers
Another goal of the program is to determine the cost of smart charging and load shifting.
The Atmospheric Fund, Optiwatt, and Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors designed the pilot testing phase. EVs will be sent a signal via the Optiwatt phone app to shift energy usage to off-peak times. The pilot will run until December 2024 and the final report will be published in 2025.
Canada will need sufficient generation capacity to support rapid EV adoption. The Fraser Institute projects Canada may need 13 new gas plants with 500 MW of capacity. However, if Canada wants to achieve its 2050 net-zero goal, renewable energy generation will have to play a larger part. The Fraser Institute identifies hydro and wind power as the likely options. Approximately 5,000 wind turbines and 10 hydroelectric facilities would need to be built to meet EV power demand. However, given the variability of wind energy, backup generation will be needed. These will likely be natural gas-fired plants.
A solution being looked at is electric vehicle energy management systems (EVEMS). As its name suggests, EVEMS manage electricity between an EV and an electric panel. In other words, EVEMS control the current drawn by EV charging. There are two categories of EVEMS: time allocation and power allocation. Time allocation assigns power to EV chargers based on specific time periods. Power allocation uses various methods to control the electricity flow to a charging station, which includes:
- Load switching
- Load sharing
- Load management with EVMS and external monitoring
While EVEMS is still a relatively new technology, it has great potential to support the growth of EV charging infrastructure while maintaining grid efficiency and reliability.
Short-term and long-term outlook
There is still uncertainty about how Canada’s electrical grid will be impacted by EV adoption. While many researchers agree that electric vehicles will cause increased demand, the extent of that demand increase is debated. As mentioned earlier, EVs are currently not a significant source of demand. Some experts say there is still time for utilities and governments at the provincial and federal levels to prepare Canada’s electrical system. In fact, the 2035 ZEV sales target will be a gradual process. The federal government has set interim sales targets for each year leading up to 2035. Having these targets makes the growth in demand somewhat predictable. Some scenarios for EV adoption have also been labelled as aggressive, i.e., overestimating the impact on the grid.
Currently, electric vehicles are not a significant source of demand. According to Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator, the incremental demand from EVs in 2023 in the province was 0.12 terawatt hours. Provincewide demand totaled 133 TWh, which was a decline from 2022. B.C., the leader in EV registrations also experienced minimal impact on its electrical grid. The explanation for this is EVs still do not represent a large portion of vehicles on the road.
Despite improving sales figures in recent years, Canada still falls behind other countries in terms of EV registrations. If Canadian EV registration continues to grow at its current pace, the impact EVs will have on the grid will be minimal. Still, Canada should expect an increase in electricity demand due to EV charging. Neglecting As long as preparations are made for the expected demand growth, Canada’s electrical grids should remain reliable and stable.
