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Net-Zero Emissions by 2050: How Canada is going to do it

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What is Net-Zero?

To begin, let’s start off with actually defining what net-zero means. Reaching net-zero emissions means the Canadian economy will either emit no greenhouse gases or offset its emissions. Examples of off-setting include planting trees or employing technologies that capture carbon before it is released into the air.

Another term you may have heard of climate action plans is “carbon neutral”. Carbon neutral differs from net-zero in that it describes the state of an entity in which the carbon emissions caused by them have been balanced out by funding an equivalent amount of carbon savings elsewhere in the world.

So then, why should we be aiming for a low-carbon economy? One major reason is to slow down or even potentially reverse global warming. Global warming is linked to extreme weather conditions (such as drought, heatwaves, floods, etc.). By reducing our emissions, we’re ensuring that future generations will have a habitable planet.

Another reason we should be lowering our carbon footprints towards net-zero emissions is that greenhouse gas emissions cause air pollution, which leads to respiratory illnesses like asthma.

According to the Government of Canada, air pollution costs the Canadian economy billions of dollars per year. In addition to billions of dollars lost, air pollution also has social costs in the form of lost productivity as well as loss in social welfare due to pain, suffering and death.

Emissions don’t only affect Canadians – did you know that 4.2 million people die every year as a result of exposure to outdoor air pollution, according to the World Health Organization?

In short, Canada’s goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 is a move towards a healthy economy as well as a better environment for everyone to live in on a global scale.

How will Canada reach its goal of Net-Zero emissions by 2050?

There are multiple ways Canada plans to reduce its carbon emissions, including:

  • Signing onto the Paris Climate Agreement – Under this agreement, Canada has agreed to reduce its emissions by 30% by 2030 (relative to 2005 levels.) Overall, the Paris Climate Agreement intends “to limit the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by human activity to the same levels that trees, soil and oceans can absorb naturally, beginning at some point between 2050 and 2100.”
  • Passing the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act to establish an independent advisory body to provide ongoing advice to the Government as Canada charts its path to net-zero by 2050.
  • Setting five-year milestone targets and emission reduction plans for each milestone target and the publication of interim and final reports on the results.
  • Introducing the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), which provides a pathway for Canada to achieve net-zero electricity by 2035.
  • Plans to exceed Canada’s 2030 emissions goal by introducing new carbon-reducing measures. For example, Canada is phasing out coal-fired electricity by 2030, putting a price on carbon and introducing clean fuel regulations. According to the CBC, the clean fuel standard is expected to contribute about 15% of the more than 200 million tonnes of greenhouse gases Canada committed to eliminating by 2030 under the Paris Climate Change Agreement.
  • Introducing a Just Transition Act, giving workers access to the training, support, and new opportunities needed to succeed in the clean economy.
  • Announcing the Hydrogen Strategy for Canada, a framework to cement hydrogen as a key part of Canada’s path to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and make Canada a global leader in hydrogen technologies.
  • Introducing the Net Zero Challenge, encouraging businesses to develop and implement effective plans to transition their operations to net-zero emissions by 2050.
  • Use existing and emerging technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon capture, wind and solar power, electrification, and direct air capture (DAC).
  • Setting Electric Vehicle sales targets to achieve 100% light-duty zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales by 2035. The targets are:
    • 395,000 new ZEV sales in 2026
    • 1.2 million new ZEV sales in 2030
    • 2.0 million new ZEV sales in 2035

Which province will be the leader?

Even though Alberta is typically known for its large oil supply, it may surprise you to know that Alberta actually has enough resources to be Canada’s #1 powerhouse even in a green market.

In 2022, Alberta housed more than three-quarters of the wind and solar facilities built in Canada. The province had 2,848 MW of wind and 949 MW of solar installed on the grid.

Although Alberta is poised to be Canada’s leader in green energy, there have been some setbacks. On August 3, 2023, the provincial government placed a pause on approving new renewable projects, which is set to last until February 29, 2024. This pause has left the future of renewable energy in the province in uncertain territory.

As a result of Alberta’s pause on approving new renewable projects, Ontario may become the new leader in renewable energy growth. In December 2023, Ontario’s electricity system operator announced its plan to bring 2,000 MW of clean electricity generation online. Scheduled for 2024, the IESO intends to regularly add 5,000 MW of renewable electricity generation over four to six years.

Is Canada a large emitter?

According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, Canada was the 11th largest emitter of carbon dioxide in 2018, with a total CO2 emissions figure of 0.56 GT. While Canada’s emissions were quite sizeable, other large emitters like the USA and China CO2 emissions figures of 5.41 GT and 10.06 GT respectively, in 2018. For 2018 per capita emissions ratings, Canada placed 5th, with CO2 emissions of 15.32T. That’s 7.8 times as much emissions as India, which ranked 21st.

Canada’s emission levels briefly dipped in 2020, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdowns. Once the lockdowns ended, emissions increased. In 2022, the country’s total emissions grew by 2.1% from 2021, an increase of 14.2 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e). However, 2022’s emissions were 6.4% below 2005 levels.

How far are we from our 2050 goals? Is Canada carbon neutral?

Currently, Canada is not carbon neutral. In the past, there have been claims that Canada’s forests are a large carbon sink that absorbs or sinks more CO2 than is emitted. Unfortunately, according to a 2019 article by the CBC, Canada’s forests haven’t been a net carbon sink since 2001. While forests and trees are indeed a carbon sink, they’re also a source of carbon emissions themselves via decomposition or forest fires.

Since Canada only recently announced the new bill aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050, it’s difficult to find a set answer. If we’re only considering past information, Canada has consistently missed its stated environmental targets for over a decade according to an article from the CBC, so this new bill may be no different. With this in mind, Canada has a long way to go towards even meeting its 2030 reduction goals, much less its net-zero 2050 goals. Even though Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions have slowly declined since 2005, it has not been at the preferred pace. In fact, the federal Environment and Sustainable Commissioner Jerry Demarco said Canada is set to miss the 2023 emission target.

What are the challenges to meeting the 2050 net-zero goal?

As we noted earlier, there are challenges to meeting Canada’s 2050 net-zero goal. The cost of transitioning Canada’s energy sector to zero emissions will be high. As a result, there may be funding issues for upcoming renewable energy projects and technologies. Revamping Canada’s energy sector to net-zero may not be as straightforward as initially believed. Electricity demand is expected to grow to be 1.6 to 2.1 times larger by 2050. Therefore, Canada’s electricity generation capacity will need to be about 3 times bigger than it currently is. This means upgrading, replacing, or expanding current systems, which can disrupt the grid. Careful planning is required, and if planning is poor, there is a risk of grid outages. As we noted earlier some emerging technology is unproven and may not be helpful in reducing emissions.

Reaching the 2050 zero emissions target requires cooperation between the federal government and provincial/territorial governments. Ideally, both parties set compatible goals and develop a unified strategy. In reality, there is no single plan that both federal and provincial/territorial governments agree upon. Each province is out of step as to the measures they have enacted. For example, Ontario and B.C. primarily use hydro and nuclear power to produce electricity. Alberta, in comparison, has been slow in adopting renewable energy generation; the province still relies heavily on natural gas. Four provinces and territories (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Nunavut) do not even have 2030 emissions targets. Therefore, Canada’s emissions remain high.

What are some of the main renewable energy projects in Canada?

Our post about how Coal-Fired Power Plants Affect Alberta’s Energy Market outlines some of the main renewable energy projects in Alberta, including ones created built or to be built by Capital Power, EDP Renewables Canada Ltd. and others. If you’re curious about what types of energy are being used in each province overall, you can check out our post here.

Moving on, some of the other main projects in Canada are listed below:

Carbon Compliance: Meet Sustainability Goals

Going green and reducing emissions is something that can be done by anyone and any business. If you want to lessen the impact your business has on emissions but don’t know where to start, our team at EnergyRates.ca can help. We can help you review green energy rates in your area, as well as the differences between renewable energy credits and carbon offsets and which one is right for your corporation.

By filling out this form or calling 1-780-628-1857, you can receive a free custom quote for the best renewable energy options for your business.